law of averages
The 'law of averages' is a statistical principle often misunderstood and misapplied, particularly in predicting short-term outcomes.
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Definition
C1Statistics
(technical, academic)The principle that, over a large number of trials, the proportion of outcomes of a particular type will tend towards the expected probability.
Example
- According to the law of averages, if you flip a coin many times, the number of heads and tails should be roughly equal.
- The law of averages explains why a fair die will show each number approximately one-sixth of the time over many rolls.
B2Informal Usage
(informal, misconception)The mistaken belief that outcomes of a random event will balance out in the short term.
Example
- He kept betting on red at the roulette table, citing the law of averages, but lost all his money.
- People often misuse the law of averages to justify their predictions about short-term events.